By Talha Ahmad
Donald Trump victory shocked the world as he has been elected as the 45th president of United State. The story of new American foreign policy has just begun. American foreign policy is deliberated on the input and research conducted by number of think thanks consisting of diverse array of highly professional security expert, strategists and policymakers. Donald trump being a critique of Obama’s foreign policy is likely going forward for a policy shift especially regarding Middle East. For number of times Obama’s administration has been accused for the Chaos in Middle East. The trump administration aim for reconciliation with Russia, in fact it’s hard track for both countries to continue their policies in the region. For American’s the biggest threat is raising military power of Russia teaming up with economically emerging China on Global level.
Trump want to end the agenda of Globalization of US army with some sort of Brexit-America, with no intention to deploy its troops in the hostile region’s of NATO against the Russian border. The NATO expansion is likely over. America-Russia reconciliation will change the dynamics of American foreign policy perspective regarding NATO and Middle East especially Syria. There are two possible results of Reconciliation. First is Policy-shift of America in the region, with Russian having the upper hand in the war and US failure in Syria and Iraq, US might backed out from the policy of regime change in Syria. Second is joint strategy of Russia and America in the region which means an end of Sectarian proxy corporate war in the region.
The joint strategy will be centered on the Kurd’s operating in four countries Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Kurd’s ephemera are backed by both Russia and America from the start of the crisis in the region. The kurd’s are working on territorial expansion both in Iraq and Syria. Both the giants Russia and America can recognize the state Kurd’s in the region which means game over for Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Turkey’s initial goal was to overthrown the Syrian regime which is likely impossible in these circumstances. Turkey has just started operation Euphrates Shield few months back against ISIS ,YPG and PKK in Syrian cities located on Turkish Border. The primary goal of operation Euphrates shield is to create a buffer zone at Syrian border to stop the infiltration of Kurd’s and ISIS convoys from Syria into Turkey. As far as the Iraq is concerned Turkey wants to establish its influence in the region which is facing serious problems from Arab nationalists.
Turkey even being a NATO ally and Strategic partner of US in the region is the most unfavorite country for US. Turkey is of no use for US if Russia agrees for joint strategy in the region. Iran being a major player of war has reservation on Russia backing the kurd’s. Kurd’s are operating in Iran since late 90s and are responsible for many massive attacks in Iran. The Iraqi Kurdistan might be used as a launching pad for insurgency in Iran. Hezbollah having a legacy of war with Israel is a major concern of Israel, being a strategic partner of US Israel will back the Russians and Americans if they drive hezbollah out of Syria and even if it is replaced by moderates rebels or Kurds. These circumstances will minimize the influence of Iran in the region and will be a major factor influencing Iran Nuclear deal with G5. Saudi Arabia major Strategic ally of US is fully aware of changing dynamics of World politics.
Saudi Arabia and China for the first time conducted joint military drills in an effort to combat terrorism. The news of Saudi budding up with China may be jarring to some, as it doesn’t conform to mainstream narrative of Saudi Arabia as an unwavering US out-post in the Middle-East. Saudi Arabia is backing most of the rebels groups operating against the Syrian regime and on other hand is facing savior problems from houthis backed by Iran. Both in Yemen and Syria the two Muslim countries are fighting against each other. Russia-America reconciliation might provide favorable environment for another chapter of Reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. One thing is clear that major policy-shifts are about to come.
The writer is a student at International Islamic University Islamabad, he can be reached at: email@example.com